The development of internationally comparable statistics on re-offending estimates in Ireland

• In Event: Quantitative Methods WG Panel 1: Innovative Measurement and Data Utilization in Criminology

Abstract

Until recently, methods of measuring re-offending in Ireland focused on calculating a rate of re-offending for a specific population. For example, the most recent prison re-offending publication published on the CSO website in July 2023 indicates that in 2020, 61% of persons released from custody during 2020 re-offended within three years of being released1. This traditional method of calculating re-offending indicators presents several limitations to users.

Limitations

• The poor timeliness of the published estimates has a limiting effect on their quality. This is currently due to the need to allow long periods of time after the relevant justice sanction to elapse so that the re-offending or desistance behaviors of individuals can be measured (e.g., re-offending within 3 years following release).
• A lack of comparability in methodology between re-offending populations serving different sanction types such as probation, custodial sentences, fines, formal warnings, and different combinations of these sanction types.
• A lack of coherent international comparisons in re-offending. Existing re-offending estimates in Ireland rely on specific characteristics that only exist in the Irish justice ecosystem and are not defined in the same way by other countries where comparison would be valuable.

Solutions

This submission will present re-offending statistics for Ireland that have been developed as an alternative and complimentary re-offending indicator for Irelands existing re-offending publications. These statistics provide.
• A more contemporary indicator of re-offending rates (2022)
• An opportunity to develop internationally comparable estimates of re-offending.
• Better national comparisons of the effectiveness that different types of justice sanctions have on increasing desistence and re-offending.

1. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-pros/prisonre-offendingstatistics2020/keyfindings/

Author

• Felix Coleman, Central Statistics Office, Ireland