Examining Change in Conspiracy Beliefs and Violent Extremism over Time

• In Event: EXTR5 Radicalisation and conspiracy beliefs

Abstract

The spread of conspiracy theories and violent extremist ideologies threaten to undermine our democratic foundations and create fundamental issues of trust on which our democracy lies. The COVID-19 pandemic, the growth of anti-government/ anti-establishment movements as well as political elites and mainstream media figures increasingly propagating extreme rhetoric and conspiracy beliefs, have led to declining levels of trust in our political and government institutions and to increasing polarization between social and political groups.

To address these growing issues, we conduct prospective-longitudinal online surveys among the U.S. population (5 waves, 1500 each) throughout the U.S. 2024 presidential election year. We apply latent growth curve modelling to examine potential temporal changes and growth trajectories in conspiracy theories propagated and to monitor changes in extremist attitudes, intentions, and behaviours among the general population.

By conducting these first-of-a-kind longitudinal surveys on the trajectories of different violent extremist outcomes, conspiracy theories as well as their associated risk and protective factors prior and leading up to the U.S. general election, we provide unique insights into the developmental trajectories and causal mechanisms.

Authors

• Bettina Rottweiler, UCL

• Paul Gill, UCL