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Spatial Correlates of Crime Rates in Post-Soviet Cities: A Micro-Level Analysis in Astana and Almaty, Kazakhstan

Thu, September 12, 9:30 to 10:45am, Faculty of Law, University of Bucharest, Floor: 1st floor, Room 2.06

Abstract

Various types of crimes exhibit specific spatial correlates. This study pioneers an assessment of the socio-economic characteristics at the micro-level associated with crime rates in post-Soviet cities. Specifically, we analyze geolocations of registered thefts and violent crimes in major metropolises such as Astana and Almaty, Kazakhstan. Together, these cities with populations of 1.3 million and 2.4 million respectively, account for up to 35% of thefts and 15% of violent crimes nationwide. Dividing each city into hexagons with a diameter of 500 meters, we scrutinize changes in crime rates within each hexagon while considering independent variables related to the socio-economic profile of the hexagon (using diverse data sources) and spatial lag. Utilizing microdata, we further disaggregate crimes by the type of area where they occur, analyzing each type separately: apartment buildings, private houses, and outdoor-public spaces. Comparing the distribution patterns of property (thefts) and violent crimes, we find that the level of business activity and the percentage of built-up area within a hexagon are positively correlated with the number of crimes in all spatial contexts. We consistently observe a significant negative correlation with the distance from the city center to the hexagon center. Moreover, thefts are associated with a larger resident population, while the cost per square meter of housing is the sole predictor that yields significant positive and negative outcomes depending on the type of area where the crime occurred. We also identify some minor differences between the two cities, which we attribute to their distinct spatial morphology and building typology.

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