Near Repeat Victimization Theory in a Post-Soviet City: Insights from Theft and Violent Crime Patterns in Almaty, Kazakhstan

• In Event: Violence and Victimization: Cross-Cultural Perspectives and Case Studies

Abstract

Near Repeat Victimization Theory (NRVT) is a prominent concept in spatial criminology, examining the propensity for repeat victimization within spatial-temporal clusters. In other words, it investigates the likelihood of subsequent crimes occurring in close proximity to the initial offense within a brief timeframe. While extensively validated in numerous cities across North America and Europe, NRVT remains untested in post-socialist urban landscapes with their distinct spatial configurations. This study pioneers the application of NRVT in Almaty, the largest metropolis in Kazakhstan with a population approaching 2.5 million. Analyzing data from 2023, we scrutinize spatial points of two categories of recorded crimes: non-serious thefts (14,007 incidents, comprising 21% of national theft occurrences) and a diverse spectrum of violent incidents (1,366 crimes, constituting 14% of similar cases nationwide). Employing the Knox test, we explore variations in crime clustering across different incident types and locations (such as residential versus outdoor areas). Using the Knox test, we show how crime clustering differs for different types and locations of incidents (residential buildings or outdoor spaces). We also assess the NRVT more complexly, adding information on urban morphology. We believe that the different specifics of spatial development determine the conditions for confirming the theory. Using data on the functional zoning of space provided by the city authorities, we cluster the city's territory into several groups, within which we conduct testing of NRVT. Our findings reveal NRVT's confirmation in Almaty, albeit with a notably diminished effect compared to European counterparts. Notably, this effect is more pronounced for thefts within specific spatial clusters than for violent crimes.

Authors

• Bekzat Bulatov, Nazarbayev University

• Dmitrii Serebrennikov, Institute for the Rule of Law at the European University at Saint-Petersburg; Maqsut Narikbayev Institute for Network and Development; Kazakhstan Sociology Lab