Tough Decisions on Trafficking Nodes? Shifting Drug Routes between Colombia and Italy

• In Event: Drugs across borders: international research on drug trafficking networks

Abstract

Criminal groups involved in illicit cross-border trading activities rely on a series of strategically positioned trafficking nodes that connect the various steps of networked illicit supply chains to smuggle goods. But under what conditions is a locality chosen by these groups to serve this function? While external factors like geographical positioning and pre-existing infrastructures are crucial in determining the emergence and relocation of trafficking nodes along drug routes, key factors related to the criminal groups' ability to access to these strategic locations further influence their decision-making. Specifically, we posit that the presence of a contact person and perceived security at a specific locality influence criminal groups’ decision-making processes when selecting a locality as strategic trafficking node.

To substantiate our argument, we conduct a content analysis of confidential police reports on one of the most important operations to date against organised crime in Italy. We create a dataset from conversations among criminal groups and individuals engaged in cocaine trafficking from Colombia to Italy to reveal patterns in their decision-making processes. In doing so, this paper reveals the dynamic and ephemeral nature of drug routes, showcasing their flexibility and contributing to the existing literature on drug trafficking as well as other forms of illicit cross-border activities and on the spatial distribution of trafficking nodes in global illicit supply chain networks.

Authors

• Emilia Ziosi, University of Oxford

• Zora Lea Hauser, University of Oxford

• Annette Idler, University of Oxford