Identifying Period Trend in the Public Concerns about Crime in Germany

• In Event: Rigours Testing in Criminological Research

Abstract

In this paper, we ask whether broader societal changes in Germany since reunification warranted a secular rise or decline in public concerns about crime. Although some studies have already focused on related topics, we argue that they do not attend well enough to the fundamental problem of age- period-cohort (APC) analysis. We revisit the question using data from the German Socioeconomic Panel and the bounding approach of Fosse & Winship (2019), which remains somewhat unpopularized in social science research. We show that the identification of the period trend, within a reasonable interval, is possible even with a very undemanding set of reasonable assumptions. The overall trend is negative pointing to a steady decline in public concerns about crime in Germany, thus challenging the assumptions and conclusions of some previous studies. At the same time, we point out that more precise identification of age and, in particular, cohort effects is more challenging and may require more demanding substantive assumptions. Our analysis is also a popular demonstration of Fosse & Winship’s approach, which we believe should be exercised more broadly for similar inquiries.

Authors

• Gordey Yastrebov, University of Cologne

• Alexander Trinidad, Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology, University of Cologne

• Thomas Leopold, University of Cologne