Researcher's challenge or nightmare? Criminological prognosis in light of the results of court files research.

• In Event: Sentencing 8. Novel Approaches in Sentencing Research

Abstract

Polish law requires a judge to make a prognosis regarding future behaviour of the offender when intending to impose a suspended imprisonment. Although the Polish Criminal Code does not use the term "criminological prognosis," theorists and practitioners generally agree that the judge is obliged to make such a prognosis, and only a positive criminological prognosis opens the possibility of applying conditional suspension of the execution of a penalty. However, the question arises whether the expectations placed on the judge are justified, and moreover – whether they are achievable, considering the limited time and relatively modest diagnostic tools available to judge for the purpose of such prognostication. Considering the above, can we even say that the judge makes a criminological prognosis, and if so – on what basis? I will address these questions by presenting preliminary results from criminological research conducted in 2024, encompassing court files in cases involving three different crimes. In my presentation, I will outline how the process of collecting information about the offender looks like in practice and whether the obtained information justifies making a prognosis. I will also attempt to assess whether the diagnostic process itself differs depending on the crime committed by the offender. Additionally, I will pay attention to whether, in justifying decisions to suspend the execution of a sentence, judges refer to the issue of criminological prognosis at all.

Author

• Katarzyna Witkowska-Rozpara, University of Warsaw, Institute of Social Prevention and Resocialisation (Department of Criminology and Criminal Policy), Center for Criminological Analysis