Violence transmission dynamics and organized crime involvement

• In Event: WG Organized Crime and Criminal Networks Panel 5: Organized crime: involvement, trajectories and vulnerabilities

Abstract

Previous research across various offending samples consistently suggests that co-offending can increase the probability of committing violent crimes in the future. However, while studies on general offenders attribute this phenomenon to mechanisms involving the internalization of violence—akin to epidemics where exposure to violent offenders leads individuals to adopt similar behaviors—research on organized crime offenders indicates the operation of distinct mechanisms. Specifically, among organized crime groups, co-offending appears to facilitate the transmission of violence without necessarily inducing the internalization of violent behavior as posited in earlier studies.

This discrepancy may be explained by the unique dynamics within criminal associations, where group processes foster a continuous and dynamic diffusion of responsibility. Such involvement may incentivize future acts of violence committed in collaboration with others, with little or no impact on future solo violent offending. In this study, we aim to investigate this hypothesis by quantitatively assessing whether the influence of co-offending on future violent behavior varies following organized crime involvement.

To achieve this, we leverage a large dataset including all the crimes committed by organized crime offenders in Italy to reconstruct offenders' criminal careers before and after organized crime recruitment. We employ dynamic regression models to estimate the impact of co-offending on the probability of committing violence in subsequent offending periods, distinguishing between pre- and post-organized crime involvement phases. Results contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the transmission of violent behavior among organized crime cohorts, shedding light on how group dynamics influence criminal trajectories.

Authors

• Cecilia Meneghini, University of Exeter

• Francesco Calderoni, Transcrime / Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (Milan)