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Parole is a mechanism by which some prisoners in England and Wales (E&W) may be released from custody under probation supervision and subject to conditions (‘on licence’).
It is the responsibility of the Parole Board to conduct independent risk assessments of eligible prisoners to determine whether they can be safely released into the community or should remain in custody for the protection of the public.
This independent study – the largest of its kind to date – describes this cohort and reports on the extent and nature of post-release rates of recall, custodial reconviction, and proven serious further offending by parolees in E&W between 2011 and 2023. It also identifies risk and protective factors associated with these outcomes.
Funded by the Dawes Trust, this exploratory research is among the first to emerge from a ground-breaking data-linkage initiative, led by the Ministry of Justice, supported by ADR UK, and hosted by the Office for National Statistics in the United Kingdom. It enables accredited researchers to access and link de-identified, individual-level, research-ready administrative data from across the criminal justice system for research purposes.
The unique insights from the research will be used to inform a better understanding of how the implementation, development, and delivery of parole arrangements can shape post-release outcomes for prisoners. Given the considerable social and economic costs associated with reoffending - recently estimated at over £GBP 18 billion annually in E&W, the project will generate public benefits by informing strategies for the effective supervision of prisoners and parolees.