- Browse/Search the Program
Search
Program Calendar
Browse By Day
Browse By Room
- Information Menu
Search Tips
Virtual Exhibit Hall
- Navigation and Settings Menu
Personal Schedule
Sign In
"Then they simply go somewhere else...“: An Exploratory Study of Crime Displacement in a German Context
Thu, September 12, 9:30 to 10:45am, Faculty of Law, University of Bucharest, Floor: 1st floor, Room 2.06Abstract
This paper answers the question whether weapon ban zones (WBZ) lead to a displacement or reduction of crime. WBZ are among the toughest security policy measures employed by the police to ensure public safety, especially in places with high crime rates. Critics often question their effectiveness in reducing crime rates, as they may lead to displacement and simply shift crime to surrounding areas.
We argue that the respective effects of a WBZ are contingent on the type of criminal behaviour. According to a dual-process model (Evans 2018; Van Gelder 2013), displacement effects are more likely to occur in crimes that render rational planning (such as property crimes) as opposed to affect-driven crimes (such as violence). To test this assumption, we examine data from the introduction of a WBZ in Leipzig, Germany, in November 2018. We analyse crimes recorded by the police between 2016 and 2020. First, the spatiotemporal crime patterns are visualized using geostatistical methods. To identify spatial shifts in crime concentration and dispersion over time, we also conduct hot-spot analyses.
The results show a clear decline in petty and grand theft – both within WBZ and in neighbouring districts ("diffusion of benefit"). Despite this overall decline in property crime, the hot-spot analyses reveal a permanent shift of property crime to new centres outside the zone. However, violent crimes and their hot spots only shifted to neighbouring areas in the first six months following the introduction of the WBZ. After six months, violent crime increased sharply not only within the WBZ but also outside ("rebound effect"). The results provide new insights into unintended consequences of the introduction of weapon ban zones to reduce local crime rates.