Evolution of the Jihadist Salafist Threat: Scenarios and Trends.

• In Event: Interdisciplinary approaches to radicalization, political violence and the relations between terrorism and crime to advance P/CVE

Abstract

This contribution is focused on the evolution of the threat represented by the Islamic State and the Al Qaida terrorist groups’ activity in a context defined by the following three realities:
• The evolution of the two groups’ strategies adapting their activism to the particular circumstances emerging in various geographical scenarios, from Central Asia since the Taliban took again the control of Afghanistan in August 2021, and the psychological impact of their victory, to the focal point of the Caliphate project in Syria/Iraq and the mutation of the Islamic State in the area.
• The impact of these two events in terms of increasing radicalization in different scenarios, from Europe to a number of African regions, and the consequences of the increasing number of persons coming back to their countries of origin from Syria/Iraq and other scenarios of the Caliphate project implementation in the last decade.
• The three wars already developing in Ukraine, since 2022, as well as in Gaza and Sudan, since 2023, as dramatic violent scenarios, are attracting so much attention and effort that the evolution of the terrorist threat represented by the Islamic State and Al Qaida – from the ideological to the direct terrorist activist levels – is becoming marginal. The war in Ukraine is defined as an additional opportunity by radical Islamist groups due to the fact the Christians kill among them, and the wars in Gaza and in Sudan are contributing to increase chaos and radicalization. Both effects become an invitation for present and future terrorist efforts to be made by Jihadist actors.

Author

• Carlos Echeverria, National University of Education at Distance UNED. Dpt of Political ScienceCY