Leveraging open sources to understand illicit firearms trafficking in Europe: an exploratory analysis

• In Event: WG Organized Crime and Criminal Networks Panel 1. Methods for studying organized crime

Abstract

Numerous research works have underscored the effectiveness of open sources in scrutinizing various forms of criminal activity. Sophisticated data processing and crawling methods based on data and text mining techniques have demonstrated their utility in gathering information on diverse criminal events such as terrorism, human trafficking, and human smuggling. This includes insights into perpetrators, victims, and modi operandi, particularly concerning crimes where official data is limited or outdated.
Within the framework of the Horizon Europe CEASEFIRE Project (Advanced versatile artificial intelligence technologies and interconnected cross-sectoral fully operational national focal points for combating illicit firearms trafficking), this study proposed a methodology centered on open source data analysis for investigating illicit firearms trafficking across Europe. By leveraging open source data, the study examines incidents involving firearms (including seizures and selected firearm-related crimes) across EU Member States, where official data is often lacking and varied. This approach facilitates the acquisition of an updated intelligence picture of the phenomenon, potentially enhancing the ability to identify emerging trafficking trends and define reliable risk profiles.

Authors

• Marina Mancuso, Transcrime - Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

• Caterina Paternoster, Transcrime - Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore