Advancing knowledge about the developmental sequences of risk factors underlying persistence in crime

• In Event: European Developmental and Life-course Criminology Working Group, Panel 1: Criminal careers

Abstract

In the field of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, the link between developmental multisystemic vulnerabilities and life-course persistent trajectories of offending is well-established. Nevertheless, to our knowledge, no study has systematically investigated how sequences of risk factors across different areas of development influence the persistence of criminal behavior into adulthood among youths who have been involved with the juvenile justice system. Therefore, this study aims to identify the crucial developmental sequences of risk factors, from childhood through adolescence, that contribute to adult recidivism among males with juvenile criminal convictions. Identifying age-graded sequences of risk factors that create a continuum of risk for persistent criminal behavior in adulthood is essential for understanding the particularly detrimental criminogenic needs within a specific developmental trajectory. This work builds upon The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD), a comprehensive multi-informant longitudinal study that followed 411 males from South London from the ages of 8-9 up to 61. Sequences of risk factors at ages 8-10, 12-14, and 16-18 were analyzed as predictors of adult criminal convictions among males convicted during adolescence. Our findings will pave the way for the development of a new generation of tailored interventions for the juvenile justice system, which could concentrate on identifying and mitigating particularly harmful future risk factors within specific developmental risk trajectories.

Authors

• Miguel Basto-Pereira, William James Center for Research, Ispa-Instituto Universitário, Lisbon

• Darrick Jolliffe, Department of Law and Criminology, Royal Holloway University of London, London, UK

• Lidón Villanueva, Universitat Jaume I de Castellón

• David Farrington, University of Cambridge