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Using administrative data to evaluate Action for Children’s Serious Organised Crime Early Intervention Service and a Quasi-Experimental Design

Fri, September 13, 9:30 to 10:45am, Faculty of Law, University of Bucharest, Floor: 1st floor, Room 2.14

Abstract

Referrals for child criminal exploitation are growing in the UK, as young people (YP) are targeted and involved in serious organised crime (SOC). Action for Children’s Serious Organised Crime Early Intervention Service (SOCEIS) aims to tackle this problem via intensive 1:1 support for children and families, peer mentors and group work.
We investigated the feasibility of evaluating SOCEIS in four UK cities between June 2020-January 2023, using police administrative data (offending and missing episodes), via quasi-experimental design. SOCEIS participants were matched to YP in neighbouring cities without SOCEIS. Number of arrests and missing episodes in a 12-month period before and after referral to the service were compared between groups using difference-in-difference.
A high percentage (>80%) of SOCEIS participants were identified in police records for three cities, yet in one city only 52% were identified. Comparison data were available for three cities. For YP identified in police data, percentage arrested prior to SOCEIS referral varied from 55%-96%. Across all four cities >80% of YP with a pre-referral arrest record, had been arrested more than once. Over 50% of SOCIES YP identified in police records had a history of being reported missing prior to referral, and of these, 63%-77% YP had gone missing more than once.
Sample size following matching was small, only 25-33% (n=11 to 14) included in difference-in-difference analysis, which did not produce statistically significant results. Nonetheless, findings are tentatively encouraging, in that a comparison of number of arrests episodes in the 12-months post referral to SOCEIS were lower than for the 12-months prior to referral across three cities.
Extension of recruitment and follow-up periods would improve sample size, providing insight into longer term impact of SOCEIS. Coordinated classification of YP deemed at risk of SOC in intervention and comparison localities would substantially improve confidence in matching individuals between groups.

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