Heat and Violence, What is the Connection? Assessing Routine Activities as a Mediator in the Relationship between Temperature and Violent crime

• In Event: Homicide and violent crime: Risk factors and weapon use

Abstract

Existing research has demonstrated that warmer temperatures are associated with increases in violent crime. These findings are usually explained by two theoretical mechanisms: first, the theory of heat and aggression, and second, the theory of routine activities. Importantly, however, very few empirical tests of these mediators exist to date. The current study utilizes administrative records on public transportation usage, outdoor leisure activities, and other public activities in the five boroughs of New York City from 2015 to 2019 to assess whether a measure routine activities mediates the relationship between temperature and violence. Findings suggest that a modest proportion of the temperature’s total effect on violence in NYC can be explained by its effect on the volume of routine activities. The theoretical and policy implications stemming from these results will be discussed.

Authors

• Kevin T. Wolff, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Christopher Thomas, Rutgers University, Camden

• Jinuk Jeong, John Jay College of Criminal Justice