Unintended consequences of early exposure to policing: assessing long-term effects of police stops during adolescence in the United Kingdom

• In Event: POL Panel 14. Police powers, decision-making and adverse consequences

Abstract

Some people spend their lifetime without ever being stopped by the police, while others often experience disproportionate exposure to policing from an early age. Previous studies suggest that police-initiated encounters in youth are associated with unintended consequences including higher odds of drug use and self-harm in later adolescence. However, the consequences of early exposure to police on offending behaviour, education and health trajectories are not well understood. Using a large-scale longitudinal survey, we examine the long-term effects of being stopped or arrested during early adolescence on offending, educational performance, and health outcomes up to three years later. Crucially, the study explores racial/ethnic differences in the experiences and longitudinal effects of being stopped or arrested during adolescence, shedding light on disparities in treatment and outcomes.

We draw on the two most recent sweeps of the United Kingdom Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), covering data from 2015 to 2018 (N = 9,159). The MCS is a nationally representative panel study that has tracked 19,000 children born between 2000 and 2002. Using panel data, we model changes in offending behaviour, educational outcomes, and mental health indicators between ages 14 and 17 based on the experience of a stop or arrest before age 14; although repeated measures are not available for every outcome variable of interest, we use the longitudinal structure of the data to ensure correct temporal ordering. We also control for important pre-treatment confounders, such as prior offending behaviour, drug use, and gang membership, among other potential dynamic confounders. Results indicate that being stopped during early adolescence is associated with increases in the probability of engaging in offending behaviour, decreases in the probability of attending university, and negative changes in self-esteem three years later. Additionally, deleterious consequences of early exposure to policing tend to be stronger among Black and other ethnic minority youth.

Authors

• Amal Ali, London School of Economics

• Arabella Kyprianides, University College London

• Pele Petnga-Wallace, College of Policing

• Paul Quinton, College of Policing

• Thiago Oliveira, University of Manchester