The prognosis of recidivism and the legal framework: MIVEA - a way to bridge the gap.

• In Event: Sentencing 6. National and Comparative Perspectives

Abstract

Theories of punishment serve as the guiding principle of criminal law, as they also inherently enable an assessment of the legitimacy of individual judicial acts. Modern criminal justice systems, that neglect retributive theories of punishment and focus on a preventive justice approach aim at preventing individual recidivism. This can be achieved when the sentence is based on a prognosis that covers all current and relevant aspects of the individual case. Also, Austrian Criminal Law demands sentences that serve specific deterrence. For this reason, all measures responding to crime must meet the following requirements: Individuality, topicality, and completeness. In contrast to conventional actuarial methods of psychological prognosis, which lack the necessary individuality due to their nomothetic research logic, as well as topicality due to the frequently observable deficiency of dynamic items, and completeness due to the limited number of items, the Method of Ideal-Typical Comparative Case-By-Case Analysis (in short: MIVEA) meets these requirements. Building upon the Tübingen Young Offenders Comparative Study (TJVU), this genuine idiographic method offers an analysis based on empirically generated “ideal types” allowing complete, individual and topical assessments. Consequently, it not only offers the chance for personalized prognosis but also provides concrete clues for expedient interventions during the process. Evolving from the specific context of interdisciplinary work in courtrooms, MIVEA thus serves as a bridge between disciplines, allowing a critical examination of the currently predominantly tech-oriented developments in the field of risk prognosis.

Authors

• Ida Leibetseder, Hans Gross Centre for Interdisciplinary Criminal Sciences (Institute of Criminal Law, Criminal Procedural Law and Criminology, University of Graz, Austria)

• Nina Kaiser, Hans Gross Centre for Interdisciplinary Criminal Sciences (Institute of Criminal Law, Criminal Procedural Law and Criminology, University of Graz, Austria)