An Examination of the Primary Determinants Influencing Juvenile Delinquency in Taiwan

• In Event: Children as Victims: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations

Abstract

From 1996 to 1998, we conducted the 'Early Prediction of Juvenile Deviant Behavior' three-year longitudinal survey, and based on its results, we tracked 807 respondents for a total of 25 years, until 2021. The study participants comprised 415 junior high school pupils in the "general group" and 392 juveniles under protective supervision (crime group). This study aims to investigate the progression and transformation of juvenile to adult criminality, as well as the predictive value of early life experiences and structural variables. The research outlines the primary discoveries below: The researchers divided the sample into two categories based on the frequency and quantity of police arrests over a 25-year period: individuals with a criminal record (455, 56.4%), and those with no criminal record (352, 43.6%). A total of 52 individuals, representing 6.44% of the sample, committed 20 or more offenses and were classified as chronic offenders. These individuals were responsible for 2,043 crimes, or 53.89% of the total number of crimes, which demonstrates the crime concentration characteristics. (2) An examination of data extraction revealed that "recreational lifestyle" exerted the greatest impact on adult crime. A decision tree analysis showed that four factors—"negative deviant peers," "recreational lifestyle," "early deviant behavior," and "low academic achievement"—had the most significant effect on the likelihood that teens and young adults would have criminal records as adults. In other words, their propensity for early deviant behavior and negative deviant peers increases in tandem with their preference for a recreational lifestyle during childhood. Furthermore, a decline in academic performance during that period further increases their likelihood of developing deviant or criminal tendencies as adults. Drawing upon the empirical findings, this research endeavors to establish efficacious adolescent prevention strategies and put forth pertinent recommendations.
Keywords: longitudinal research, early life experiences, chronic offenders, and decision tree analysis are all

Authors

• Pi-Tsui Yeh, tracy@mail.cpu.edu.tw

• YING KAI CHEN, Central Police University,