Apocalypse Now? Assessing the Current Islamist Threat Landscape in Europe & the US

• In Event: EXTR2 Threat landscape and counter-terrorism1

Abstract

Despite a rise in right-wing extremist violence in Western nations, globally Islamist attacks dwarf all other ideologically inspired violence. While the total number of attacks have come down from their peak during the recent Syrian War, they remain high world-wide and are spreading in some regions, such as the African Sahel. What is the current threat environment from Islamist inspired terrorism in the West? To what extent has the threat been reduced? And, to what extent should we see a continuation of trends that started in the immediate aftermath of 9/11? This paper uses data collected from the recently published Jihadi Plots in Europe Dataset (JPED) and recent updates to the Jihadi Plots in the USA (JPUSA) dataset to attempt to answer these questions. Variables such as plot size, weapons used, and targeting choices can help explain terrorist goals. Since much Islamist terrorism in the West can be viewed as the result “spillover” from overseas conflicts and of Western involvement in them, we should expect little variation in jihadi plots in the West given the relative stability of foreign policy. Findings: TBD.

Author

• Christopher Wright, Austin Peay State University