Theory-testing and relevant methodologies in criminological research

Session Submission Type: Pre-arranged Panel

Abstract

Criminological theories offer insightful and detailed explanations about the social world, with different theories relying on different social dimensions to explain crime and deviance. For example, life-course approaches tend to focus on the development of certain attitudes and behaviours over time; ecological theories often highlight the spatial relationship between area-level attributes and the effects of ecological context on individual values and behaviours; rational-choice and socio-psychological approaches usually emphasise micro-level mechanisms that explain individual behaviour. Some theories premise causal mechanisms, some theories premise micro-macro links, some theories premise reciprocal relationships. Empirical researchers then attempt to assess the degree to which those theoretical claims have empirical validity using a variety of empirical strategies: randomised control trials, longitudinal surveys, ethnographies, ecological studies, in-depth interviews, social network analysis, among others. Yet, sometimes empirical research is conducted without careful attention to the assumptions and nuances. In this panel, we discuss advances in quantitative methodologies that allow for appropriate empirical and analytic strategies for theory-testing. Our goal is to highlight how theory informs methods, how certain methods are appropriate to test certain theories but not others, and the implications of inappropriate methodological choices in theory-testing. The panel features papers discussing the challenges in causal inference from a selection-on-observables perspective and the threat of bad control variables, the use of cross-lagged panel models to test criminological theories that suggest reciprocal causal relationships, and the wide range of theorised causal mechanisms that offer theoretical explanations to the potential effects of traffic calming initiatives on antisocial behaviour.

Subtopic

• Topic 8: Methodologies in Criminology / Advances in Quantitative Methods (Qantitative Methods WG)

Chair

• Thiago Oliveira, University of Manchester

Individual Presentations

• The good, and the bad, and the ugly: selecting control variables when testing criminological theories - Nicolas Trajtenberg, University of Manchester; Thiago Oliveira, University of Manchester

• Reciprocal relationships, reverse causality, and temporal ordering: testing theories with cross-lagged panel models - Thiago Oliveira, University of Manchester; Charles C Lanfear, University of Cambridge

• Theorising the effect of traffic calming initiatives on antisocial behaviour - Jose Pina-Sánchez, University of Leeds

• Reassessing 'The Effect of the Seattle Police-Free CHOP Zone on Crime': A counteracting critique - Charles C Lanfear, University of Cambridge