Bridging Criminology and Mathematics: Advancing Theory Through Formal Modelling

• In Event: Crime, Science and Politics WG Panel 1: Global Disciplines and Southern Perspectives in Criminology

Abstract

Good theory is indispensable to any meaningful practical application or policy in criminology. While decades of research have uncovered numerous correlates of crime, integrating these variables into a coherent framework remains a significant challenge. Traditional human experiments and empirical studies, though valuable, struggle to account for the full complexity of criminological phenomena. Mathematics offers a powerful tool to bridge this gap, allowing us to formalise theoretical models and systematically test how key variables interact within a unified structure. This presentation explores the potential of mathematical modelling in criminology, demonstrating how it enables us to synthesise diverse findings into a single explanatory framework. As an illustration, we discuss ongoing efforts to mathematise the Retribution and Reciprocity Model (Svingen, 2023). We derive equations to represent how social interactions cause changes in individuals’ propensities for crime. Computer simulations of these dynamics reveal long-term tendencies towards rule-adherence or rule-breaking, highlighting the mathematical model’s capacity to validate theories, guide experiments and generate applicable insights. By leveraging mathematical approaches, we can refine criminological theory, enhance its predictive power, and ultimately inform more effective policy interventions.

Authors

• Evelyn Svingen, University of Birmingham

• Galane Luo, University of Birmingham