P022. Creation of a predictive model to estimate the reports of sexual crimes against children and adolescents in Chile

• In Event: Poster Session & Ice Cream Social

Abstract

During 2022, the reports of sexual crimes against children and adolescents in Chile reached up to 40,000 cases. Complaints have been increasing for some years now, and their growth has been difficult to estimate early on, making it challenging to design public policies to address the problem. The aim of this research was to develop a statistical method to estimate the number of these reports in the future, using time series analysis. Official data on reported sexual crimes between January 2006 and December 2022 were used for the forecast.
The results indicate a sustained increase in the number of sexual offences over the period analyzed. The construction of the predictive model demonstrated the feasibility of developing a predictive tool, a novel application in the field of sexual crimes against children and adolescents. The model demonstrated high predictability with minimal error (7.6%). In addition, the model showed a high level of accuracy when compared to reported sexual crime figures for 2023, with an error of only 4.4% relative to the actual figures. The primary conclusion of this research was to demonstrate the feasibility of a predictive model for future estimates of reported sexual offences against children and adolescents. Plan for the impact this will have on human resources and the processes required to conduct criminal investigations of these cases, including the institutions that must provide support to child and adolescent victims of these assaults.

Authors

• Carolina Pavez, Fundación Amparo y Justicia

• Nicolás Pietrsasanta, Fundación Amparo y Justicia

• Claudia Capella, Universidad de Chile

• Cristián Pinto, Universidad de Tarapacá

• Diego Portilla, Universidad Católica del Norte