The role of sentence plan in prisoners’ transfer decisions

• In Event: PWG - Control, transparency, and sentence planning

Abstract

The first step in the gradual release process is transfer from closed prison to an open facility. The rationale behind the idea is to progressively add responsibility and freedom of prisoner, hence aiming to minimize probability of recidivism. If it is foreseeable that the prisoner meets the general conditions set to transfer, the transfer could be mentioned already in the sentence plan made at the beginning of the prison term.

Among other things, the sentence plan should play a role while assessing prisoner´s suitability to open prison. The assumption is that when prisoner is committed to the plan and has shown activity implementing it, the outcome of the decision could be predicted as positive. To examine the actual role of the sentence plan, register based data was collected. The data consisted of all the transfer decisions made in 2014 (N=2 113) and background information of each applicant (prisoner). The data was analyzed by using regression analysis. The documents (statement and written grounds) of each case were also examined by content analysis.

Regression analysis showed that goals set in individual sentence plan were not statistically significant. Instead, prisoners’ age increased the probability to have positive transfer decision, whereas nationality (foreign), number of previous prison terms, length of the sentence and more that half of the sentence is served increased the probability to receive negative decision.

In the content analysis the sentence plan was not in remarkable role either. Only in 1/3 of the documentation related to each decision included grounds explicitly related to the plan. The grounds were mainly negative remarks.

The results challenge the realization of gradual release as well as the role of sentence plan as an incentive, which is highlighted in practice while motivating the prisoner to comply with it to e.g. achieve less controlled conditions.

Author

• Mia Kilpeläinen, University of Eastern Finland