Trafficking ADHD Medication on the Darknet Market

• In Event: Online drug markets and their evolving dynamics

Abstract

Background. Purity is a crucial factor in illicit drug markets, particularly for hard drugs, as misjudging the quality can lead to severe consequences for consumers. The inherent asymmetry of information between buyers and sellers, along with the inability of users to assess drug quality until after consumption, complicates the purity assessment process. Methods. This study explores the relationship between declared purity and market dynamics in the darknet cocaine market by analyzing 4,161 AlphaBay listings using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
Results. Our analysis reveals a non-linear relationship between declared purity and various market factors, including prices, perceived quality, sales, and revenues. While claims of high purity (91-99%) are associated with higher prices, perceived quality, sales, and revenues, claims exceeding 99% are linked to modest evaluations and lower purchase volumes, likely due to their perceived unreliability. Listings with medium purity (68-86%) tend to underperform in both sales and revenue, suggesting that this purity range may be suboptimal for attracting buyers.
Conclusion. Although purity declarations help address information gaps to some extent, trust—bolstered by user feedback and verifiable signals remains the key driver of buyer behavior and market outcomes. Since consumers are unable to verify purity before consumption, exaggerated or implausible claims can significantly damage a seller’s credibility and, in turn, erode market trust.

Authors

• Filippo Andrei, University of Trento

• Alberto Aziani, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca

• Anita Lavorgna, University of Bologna