Linking conspiracy beliefs with violent anti-government extremism: Exploring the mediating role of anger and illegitimacy, and the moderating role of procedural justice

• In Event: A Kaleidoscope of Ideologically-motivated Extremism: Causes, Consequences & Solutions

Abstract

The world has seen a significant increase in political polarisation, anti-authority and anti-government sentiment, and numerous incidents of violent political protest. Conspiracy theories are also gaining traction, trust in institutions is eroding, and provocative and violent behaviours are being normalised. While our understanding of how and why people come to believe in conspiracy theories is well developed, the consequences of such beliefs—particularly their link to anti-government extremism—is less well understood. Relatedly, the reasons why such beliefs might drive violence and what can be done to mitigate them are unclear. Thus, the current paper explores the link between conspiracy beliefs and violent anti-government extremism. Using Australian survey data (N=1595), it examines whether conspiracy believers are more prone to anti-government violence. Violence is measured as (1) attitudinal support for anti-government violence, (2) support for taking up arms against government, and (3) actual self-reported engagement in anti-government violence. The findings show a positive association between conspiracy beliefs and all three forms of violence, with these relationships being mediated (i.e., explained) by anger and the perceived illegitimacy of government. Finally, while conspiracy beliefs are notoriously difficult to shift, the findings also show that governmental procedural justice can mitigate the strength of the association between conspiracy beliefs and both anger and illegitimacy. Hence, governments who wish to mitigate the drivers of violent anti-government extremism must consistently adhere to procedural justice when making decisions and when interacting with citizens.

Author

• Kristina Murphy, Griffith University