Foraging for Crime: A Simulation Study on Co-Offender Specialization

• In Event: Testing rational explanations of crime

Abstract

Offenders exhibit a mix of generalization and specialization in terms of their criminal activities, yet the underlying mechanisms, particularly in co-offending contexts, remain unclear. While offenders are typically generalists, those who repeatedly collaborate with the same partners tend to specialize. Co-offenders tend to operate within shared criminal opportunities, raising questions about how trust and perceived risk influence their willingness to explore new opportunities with unfamiliar partners. Additionally, network redundancy may limit exposure to new opportunities, reinforcing specialization when offenders remain embedded in dense co-offending networks. Drawing inspiration from foraging theory, this study explores how co-offenders navigate the trade-off between exploration (seeking new opportunities) and exploitation (maximizing rewards from known opportunities). Using an Agent-Based Modeling approach, we examine the factors that shape offenders' decision-making. This study aims to provide new insights into the dynamics of co-offending specialization, drawing parallels between offender decision-making and behavioral ecology. By modeling the interplay between trust, network constraints, and opportunity selection, we seek to understand better how criminal partnerships evolve and whether co-offenders optimize their behavior similarly to foraging agents.

Authors

• Ruslan Klymentiev, Ghent University

• Luis Enrique Correa da Rocha, Ghent University

• Christophe Vandeviver, Ghent University