The trajectories of excluded school pupils into (and out of) the criminal justice system

• In Event: Advancing criminological research through administrative data: Lessons from the ADR UK Data First programme (Panel 2)

Abstract

School exclusions are an integral part of the school system in the UK and are used extensively, particularly in England. There are significant concerns about the outcomes of excluded school pupils on a short- and long-term basis and how these vary disproportionally for certain groups of children with negative social and economic outcomes. This study will use the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Department for Education (DfE) linked administrative dataset to analyse the relationship between school exclusions and offending on a significant scale in England. Drawing on a sample of approximately 1.5 million school pupils born between 2000 and 2003 matched to the Police National Computer (MoJ dataset), this study aims to answer the following questions: How do different types (temporary or permanent) and frequency of school exclusions relate to offending trajectories? Are there differences in the offending trajectory of excluded school pupils based on geographical location? Are there differences in offending severity and offending rates between those who remain in main-stream education following permanent school exclusion compared to those in a Pupil Referral Unit? A range of quantitative analyses will be undertaken. Firstly, group-based trajectory modelling will be used to examine the different offending trajectories of school pupils following school exclusion using school- and offence-related variables along with socio-demographic factors. Ordinal logistic regression will then be used to examine the predictors of level of involvement with the criminal justice system considering geographical local using differences in types and variability of school exclusions, offence related factors, and socio-demographic factors. Finally, binary logistic regression will examine the differences between exclusion outcomes of pupils who remain in mainstream education and those educated in Pupil Referral Units following exclusion. This will be considered in relation to violent offending and other school, offence and socio-demographic factors. This talk will present early results from this study.

Author

• Victoria Barrett, University of Huddersfield