Investigating Relationships between Youth Offending and Attending Alternative Education Settings: Preliminary Results on Protective and Risk Factors Using Administrative Datasets

• In Event: Advancing criminological research through administrative data: Lessons from the ADR UK Data First programme (Panel 2)

Abstract

Youth offenders are more likely to have special educational needs, experience school exclusion, be involved in the care system, and are more likely to be from economically disadvantaged backgrounds. Consequently, youth at increased risk for offending/re-offending are overrepresented in the population of young people attending alternative educational settings (Alternative Provision-AP) in England. Yet, it is unclear what protective or risk factors are associated with these educational experiences on offending outcomes for this population. Utilizing the linked Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Department for Education (DfE) dataset to create a cohort of individuals for birth years 1993-2000, this study employs a quasi-experimental design to investigate the effect of AP (as an intervention) on the likelihood of offending/re-offending compared to young people in mainstream education with similar social/demographic characteristics. We aim to explore whether exposure to AP settings is beneficial in reducing offending. It is known that applying standard regression methods to observational studies will yield biased results because of the lack of a random treatment allocation mechanism, so we adopt a causal effect approach instead (Hernán & Robins 2020). We will use inverse proportional weighting to rebalance covariates distribution across the two settings, coupled with a Regression Adjustment to estimate the potential outcome mean for offending for pupils in AP and mainstream schools. This paper will present preliminary results that contribute to our understanding of the influence of AP ‘exposure’ on youth offending patterns. Relevant for policymakers and practitioners across the education, youth justice and care sectors, the findings have the potential to better inform policy development and practice decisions that leverage protective characteristics of AP in mainstream schools to improve education and offending outcomes for youth offenders. Furthermore, the findings will contribute to a more nuanced understanding of risk factors associated with attending AP settings to inform practice change.

Authors

• Liliana Belkin, University of Roehampton

• Arun Sondhi, Leeds Trinity University