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Joint trajectories of alcohol consumption and crime and associated outcomes
Thu, September 4, 1:00 to 2:15pm, Deree | Arts Center Building, Arts Center Deree 002Abstract
Alcohol consumption and crime are often overlapping behaviors that may follow different developmental trajectories. Also, different social and health outcomes may be associated with different types of trajectories. The aim was to investigate different trajectories of co-occurring alcohol use and crime and what social and health outcomes are associated with these trajectories.
A sample of 2799 (males=42%) randomly selected participants born in 2001 were measured with surveys at three time points (ages 16, 18 and 21). Group based multi trajectory modeling was used to identify joint developmental trajectories for alcohol consumption and crime. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify associations between trajectories for the outcomes of anxiety, depression, Not in Employment Education or Training [NEET]-status, school failure, single relationship status, cannabis use and hard drug use at age 21.
Four trajectories were identified; ‘Alcohol only’, which was 72% of the sample (males=37%), which had consistently low involvement in crime, and low alcohol consumption at age 16 which increased to age 21. This trajectory was selected as reference; ‘Abstainers’, which was 10% (males=40%), which had low alcohol consumption and involvement in crime from age 16 to 21; ‘Alcohol increase/crime decrease’, which was 15% (males=60%), which had the highest alcohol consumption and crime at age 16 and increasing alcohol consumption, but decreasing crime to age 21; ‘Escalators’, which was 3% (males=71%), which had low alcohol consumption and crime at age 16 and increasing both to age 21. Being part of ‘Abstainers’ was associated with decreased probability for cannabis use and increased probability for single relationship status. ‘Alcohol increase/crime decrease’ was associated with increased probability of cannabis use and hard drug use. ‘Escalators’ was associated with increased probability of depression, school failure, cannabis use, and hard drug use. Anxiety and NEET-status was not associated with any trajectory.