Safe Spaces: Exploring Geographical Information System (GIS) geostatistical spatiotemporal analysis - the potential buffering effects of youth work provision in areas of elevated violent crime.

• In Event: Advances in Quantitative Methods Panel 2: Spatial and Geographic Modeling in Criminology

Abstract

Introduction:

Serious violence is an enduring phenomenon of interest to criminologists and is a significant concern to policy makers who have global and national mandates to improve public health and to prevent intentional injury. Despite being enshrined in the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (Article 19) and the SDGs (SDG 16), serious violence continues to disproportionately affect children and young people (Hillis et al., 2015). In Northern Ireland, a population-based prevalence survey illustrated that 8.7% of the adult population have experienced community violence and 20.9% have experienced collective violence as children (Walsh et al., 2025). However, violence is not experienced uniformly. Some children, in some communities are more affected by elevated serious crime and violence (Walsh et al., 2024), requiring a better understanding of where and why violence is experienced and targeting those areas with preventative and remedial interventions. Despite roots in the Chicago School and instructive theories such as Collective Efficacy, place-based violent crime analysis has been limited, even at a time of rapid growth in other disciplines. Hall and Yarwood (2024) outline crime mapping as geography’s first prominent contribution to the analysis of crime.

Method:
To understand whether the presence of youth work provision had a buffering effect in areas likely to experience elevated violent crime, GIS analysis was completed on violent crime data. Coordinate incidents were analysed in relation to proximity of prosocial services to assess if these facilities had a protective or enabling nature.

Findings and implications:
69.5% of sites fell into isolated categories. 7.5% were isolated significant indicating that youth services are significantly less likely to be colocated with incidents of violent crime. Preliminary analysis indicates a protective nature of these services. GIS allows exploration of these results and is an underutilised approach that can be harnessed to help inform prevention activities.

Authors

• Antoinette Keaney-Bell, Queen's University Belfast

• Colm Walsh, Queen's University Belfast