The Effects of Military Intervention on Homicide in Mexico, 2000-2022

• In Event: POLWG Panel 21. Evaluating Policing Practice: Police Use of Force and Authority

Abstract

In the sixteen years between 2007 and 2022, following President Calderón’s declaration of war against the cartels, close to half a million people died of homicide in Mexico. The military is the spearhead of these interventions and has been argued to lead to adverse consequences. I examined the causal effect of military intervention on total homicide and gun homicide rates across municipalities from 2000 through 2022. Mexico was selected as the focal point due to its persistently high homicide levels and the unique opportunity to analyze the heterogeneous effects of military intervention as a natural experiment. I used a Two-Way Fixed Effect (TWFE)-Difference-in-Difference (DID) model, and the results indicate that military intervention increased total homicide and gun homicide rates on average in the treated municipalities compared to what would have happened in those areas had the intervention not occurred. I also provided robustness analysis by calculating the extended TWFE-DID and TWFE spatial models. The findings are interpreted through illegal enterprise theory, which argues that the external disruption of military intervention destabilizes criminal organizations, leading to heightened competition, fragmentation, and increased violence. The results suggest that militarized law enforcement strategies may be counterproductive, calling for evidence-based policy alternatives to address organized crime effectively.

Authors

• Guillermo Jesús Escaño, Villanova Univserity

• William Alex Pridemore, Department of Sociology, University of Georgia