Disaggregating Civilian and Combatant Deaths in Bosnia and Herzegovina

• In Event: New Challenges and Developments in Transitional Justice (ECACTJ Working Group)

Abstract

With war comes both civilian and combatant casualties. The ratio of these deaths can often be muddied, especially in cases where ethnic violence and extremism permeate the conflict. Recent studies have begun to disaggregate such violent events within subnational regions, during sub-annual time periods, and across distinct actors. However, these studies fail to separate death totals by civilian and combatant status and often negate the ethnicity of the deceased. Drawing on the case of the Bosnian War, a conflict rooted heavily in ethnic division, we disaggregate civilian and combatant deaths as well as ethnic status to determine if ethnicity had a differential impact on civilian and combatant deaths in the conflict. We use the Bosnian Book of the Dead to determine the deceased civilian (N= 34,096) or combatant (N=30,824) status, Serbian (N= 25,765), Bosniak (N= 64,920), or Croat (N=8,796) ethnicity, and municipality of death. We additionally control for geopolitical factors such as ethnic enclaves, frontline locations, country boarders, and political polarization. Using Bayesian analysis, we determine that frontline presence was significantly positively associated with civilian deaths among Bosniaks and Serbs, while frontline presence was significantly negatively correlated with civilian casualties for Croats. The difference found between ethnicities civilian casualties demonstrates that violence in the Bosnian War targeted individuals based on their ethnic group, regardless of the civilian/combatant status. These findings demonstrate the value of conducting such analyses in the wake of future ethnic conflicts to determine, if war crimes, as defined by Article 8 of the Rome Statute, occurred.

Authors

• Anneliese Schenk-Day, Ohio State University

• Hollie Nyseth Nzitatira, The Ohio State University

• Trey Billing, ACLED