P112. The Effect of the Abolition of the Long-Gun Registry on Homicides in Canada: Results from a Natural Experiment

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Abstract

Firearm homicides in Canada increased by 77% between 2014 and 2020, while in Quebec, they decreased, dropping from 0.8 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2014 to 0.3 in 2020 (Miladinovic & Mulligan, 2015; Armstrong & Jaffray, 2021). This divergence in trends between Quebec and the rest of Canada coincides with the 2012 abolition of the long-gun registry (covering rifles and shotguns) by the Conservative government, which had originally been introduced under Bill C-68. Unlike the rest of Canada, Quebec maintained mandatory long-gun registration.
This research seeks to evaluate the impact of the long-gun registry on homicide rates in Canada, presenting a unique natural experiment comparing Quebec with the rest of the country. Using homicide data from 1974 to 2021 for each province and the Northwest Territories, the impact of the registry’s abolition was estimated through the difference-in-differences method. A weighted average effect was then calculated based on individual estimates.
The average effects indicate that the abolition of the long-gun registry was followed by a gradual and permanent increase in the overall homicide rate in Canada (β = 0.06; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.06) and in the firearm homicide rate (β = 0.06; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.09). The homicide rate by other methods was not significantly affected (β = 0.01; 95% CI: -0.01, 0.03). The results also suggest that this increase did not occur in Quebec. No displacement effect was observed.
The results of this study suggest that the abolition of the long-gun registry in Canada in 2012 is partly responsible for the increase in firearm homicides across the country, except in Quebec.

Authors

• Vendeville Pauline, Université de Montréal

• Étienne Blais, Université de Montréal