Developmental Sequences of Risk Factors Shaping Life-Course-Persistent, Adolescence-Limited, and Late-Onset Offending: Findings from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

• In Event: EDLC: capita selecta

Abstract

Several longitudinal studies have examined the impact of different risk factors on criminal behaviour. However, no study has yet systematically investigated how the sequences in which these vulnerabilities emerge may influence offending pathways. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of the developmental sequences of risk factors from childhood, early adolescence and through the transition to adulthood on adult criminal convictions up to age 61. In particular, there were two main objectives: (1) examining the sequences of risk factors leading to Life-Course Persistent (LCP) offending (versus Adolescent-Limited [AL] offending) among males convicted during adolescence, and (2) examining the sequences of risk factors leading to Late-Onset (LO) offending among males not convicted during adolescence. Using data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, the sequences of risk factors at ages 8–10, 12–14, and 16–18 were mapped and analysed as predictors of adult criminal convictions. Our results indicated that dysfunctional parenting, risk-taking behaviour, and low academic achievement at ages 8–10 were critical entry points in the developmental sequences associated with later adult convictions. Those sequences were typically followed by hyperactivity and low cognitive ability at ages 12–14, which were subsequently followed by school failure and involvement in risky behaviours at ages 16–18. In contrast, among males not convicted during adolescence, the sequences leading to Late-Onset offending were mostly characterized by indicators of socioeconomic vulnerabilities at ages 8–10, followed by (or in conjunction with) low IQ and academic failure during adolescence and early adulthood. Our findings suggest that while the developmental sequences of risk factors for LCP offending were characterised by both immediate and long-term drivers of antisocial behaviour, LO individuals exhibit fewer sequences containing risk factors with an immediate impact on antisocial behaviour. Simultaneously, those developmental sequences contribute to stable vulnerabilities for criminal behaviour during adulthood.

Authors

• Miguel Basto-Pereira, William James Center for Research, Ispa-Instituto Universitário, Lisbon

• Darrick Jolliffe, Department of Law and Criminology, Royal Holloway University of London, London, UK

• David Farrington, University of Cambridge