A flatter age-crime curve? A multi-birth cohort (1994-2003) approach to youth crime in the Netherlands

• In Event: EDLC: multi-cohort studies

Abstract

The age-crime curve is one of the most extensively studied patterns in criminology, describing how criminal behavior peaks during adolescence and subsequently declines. While this curve is often considered universally stable, recent research suggests that crime patterns may change over time. This raises the question of whether the age-crime curve among youth follows a different trajectory than in the past. This study examines the development of the age-crime curve in the Netherlands across 10 successive birth cohorts (1994-2003) using register data accessible via Statistics Netherlands (CBS). The analysis focuses on convictions for different types of crime in individuals aged 12-20, while also highlighting differences between boys and girls. The study provides insights into the extent to which the age-crime curve has changed and which crime categories and demographic groups drive these changes. Specifically, it assesses whether the peak in youth crime has flattened and whether the age-related dynamics of criminal behavior in the Netherlands are undergoing a structural shift. By applying a multi-birth cohort approach, this research contributes to the broader debate on the stability and variability of the age-crime curve and its implications for criminological policy and theoretical development.

Authors

• Babette van Hazebroek, Leiden University

• Paul Nieuwbeerta, Leiden University