A Simulation Approach to Assess the Impact of Law Enforcement Interventions: How the Efficiency/Security Trade-Off Affects Drug Trafficking Networks' Resilience to Arrests

• In Event: Measuring and Evaluating the Impact of Serious and Organized Crime Policies and Interventions

Abstract

Previous research on criminal network disruption has often overlooked how drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) adapt to law enforcement interventions. This study examines the impact of such interventions under realistic conditions where multiple members are arrested simultaneously, and DTOs respond with varying adaptive strategies.

Using an empirically informed agent-based model, we simulate the drug trafficking activities of a large criminal organization, drawing on data from a law enforcement operation against an Italian DTO and existing literature. Our analysis evaluates how different law enforcement interventions influence the resilience and resistance of DTOs that adopt varying efficiency/security trade-off strategies.

Our results reveal that efficient DTOs are highly resilient to isolated disruption attempts. However, in more realistic scenarios where law enforcement actions are sustained over time, their vulnerability increases. In contrast, secure DTOs are less able to recover from immediate disruptions but exhibit greater long-term resistance by minimizing exposure and avoiding continuous targeting.

These findings underscore the critical role of the efficiency/security trade-off in determining DTO survival following law enforcement interventions. While efficient DTOs can withstand individual enforcement actions, their adaptability is limited under sustained pressure. Conversely, secure DTOs, despite their weaker immediate response, can persist over extended periods by evading detection.
By highlighting the distinct vulnerabilities and advantages of different organizational strategies, this study provides valuable insights for policy makers seeking to design more effective interventions. Tailoring enforcement strategies to the specific organizational structure of DTOs can enhance law enforcement’s ability to disrupt criminal networks with lasting impact.

Authors

• Deborah Manzi, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Transcrime

• Francesco Calderoni, Transcrime / Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (Milan)