Resource Scarcity, Demographic Shifts, and Patterns of Violence: Empirical Insights from Rwanda’s Gacaca Courts

• In Event: New Knowledge, Perspectives, and Approaches of Atrocity Crimes Research (ECACTJ Working Group)

Abstract

Scholars frequently cite resource scarcity and population pressure as key contributors to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, particularly given the country’s extreme population density. However, limited research has empirically examined the relationship between scarcity, demographic shifts, and patterns of violence. This study addresses that gap by leveraging newly available data from Rwanda’s post-genocide gacaca courts to assess how different measures of scarcity influenced both violent and property crimes. We operationalize scarcity through multiple indicators, including population density, shifts in the Hutu-Tutsi ratio, kilocalorie production per day, rainfall levels, and broader demographic changes. Using fixed-effects models at higher levels of administrative organization, we analyze the relationship between these scarcity indicators and participation in violence, disaggregating by crime type and severity. By integrating environmental, demographic, and judicial data, our study provides new insights into the mechanisms linking resource pressure to mass violence. These findings contribute to criminological and socio-environmental understandings of atrocity crimes and may inform policies aimed at mitigating future resource-driven conflicts.

Authors

• Taylor June, Ohio State

• Hollie Nyseth Nzitatira, The Ohio State University

• Jared Edgerton, University of Texas at Dallas