Identifying factors associated with changes in charge volumes: a statistical analysis

• In Event: POLWG Panel 25. Workloads, Pressures and Gaps in Policing and Criminal Justice

Abstract

Between the years ending 31 March 2014 and 2023, the number of police charges in England and Wales fell by 34% while crime levels did not see the same reduction. We sought to identify the key factors driving the trends in charge volumes and other outcomes, over time. To do this we applied panel regression to recent police force-level data to build a series of crime-type specific models. Our variables included measures of police workforce and capacity, crime workload, crime availability and police activity (for example, stop and search). Our main outcome of interest was the number of people being charged but for some models we also looked at the number of suspects who were proceeded against at court, the number given cautions and out of court resolutions.

For this study, data was modelled at the crime-type level. Eight victim-based offences (shoplifting, burglary, criminal damage, all other theft, assault with and without injury, adult rape, and rape of a child under 13), and four possession offences (drugs possession, possession of drugs with intent to supply, weapons possession, and going equipped to steal).

Taking the modelled results from the three groups of offences together – property offences, violence and sexual offences, and possession offences – several patterns emerge. The first observation is that the relationship between changes within a police workforce and trends in charge volumes is more complicated than being solely a function of changes in officer headcount. The second is that although some common analytical themes emerge, marked differences exist between the factors relevant to victim-based offences and possession offences.

Authors

• Cloe Cole, Home Office Analysis and Insight, Home Office, UK

• Victoria Richardson, Home Office Analysis and Insight, Home Office, UK