Mapping Justice: Exploring the Spatial Patterns of Prosecutorial Processing and Sentencing Outcomes in Montgomery County, Maryland

• In Event: Cumulative (Dis)advantage, (Dis)trust, and Sanctioning Disparities 2: Ecological Dimensions in European and American Contexts

Abstract

Existing literature has investigated the spatial distribution and concentration of crime, and it is widely acknowledged that crime is clustered in certain communities, such as those of minority, marginalized, and socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods (Peterson & Krivo, 2010). Recently, there has been an increasing interest in spatial inequality in courts and sentencings, especially in the case of racial disparity (Donnelly, 2021; Omori, 2017), but little work has considered spatial dimensions of prosecution. The current study aims to (1) descriptively explore the spatial concentration of different prosecutorial and sentencing outcomes and (2) examine the potential influences of neighborhood conditions on these outcomes. Using data from the Montgomery County City State’s Attorney’s Office (MCSAO) 2017-2019, 2021 American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2017-2021), and official crime data from the Montgomery County Police Department, we first conduct Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) to understand the spatial patterns of prosecutorial decisions and sentencing outcomes at the census tract level. Second, we employ spatial regressions to understand the potential spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity in these outcomes. Preliminary results show spatial concentrations of convictions, guilty pleas, and incarceration, particularly in community of color with higher crime rates. We conclude with a discussion of the theoretical implications of our findings along with ideas for future research.

Authors

• Carol Xuanying Chen, Susquehanna University

• Brian Johnson, University of Maryland