P040. Exploring crime trends of child sexual abuse: Real progress or a need for deeper analysis?

• In Event: Poster Session & Ice Cream Social

Abstract

Background: Evidence from countries such as the United States and Canada indicates a notable decline in reported cases of child sexual abuse over recent decades. This trend has prompted discussions among researchers regarding whether the decline reflects a genuine decrease in offending or if it results from underreporting and systemic failures in victim protection. Despite the relevance of this issue, to our knowledge, no studies have examined trends of child sexual abuse in Portugal, leaving uncertainty about whether a similar decline exists. Given the potential implications for child protection policies, our study aims to analyze patterns in reported cases of child sexual abuse. By examining these trends, we seek to provide a deeper understanding of patterns that will inform child protection policies and to foster discussions on whether a decline, if observed, reflects real progress or potential barriers in victim reporting. Method: This study will analyze data from the online Justice Statistics platform, managed by the General Directorate of Justice Policy (DGPJ). Justice Statistics provides comprehensive information on the total number of child abuse crimes registered by police authorities, criminal cases under trial, and convictions. Data are available since 1983 onwards. Our analysis will include a descriptive assessment by plotting the reported cases by year to visualize trends in child sexual abuse over time. This approach will allow us to identify any apparent patterns, fluctuations, or long-term shifts. Additionally, we will estimate trajectory models to detect different trajectories within the data. Results and Conclusions: Our preliminary findings suggest fluctuations in reported cases over time. While we observe an increasing pattern in officially recorded cases of child sexual abuse in the early years of available data, a notable decline appears over the past decade. These findings provide valuable insights that can guide informed policies and strengthen child protection efforts.

Authors

• Beatriz Almeida Teixeira, School of Criminology, Faculty of Law, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

• Miguel Tipakov, School of Criminology, Faculty of Law, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

• Hugo S. Gomes, EPIUnit ITR, Institute of Public Health of the University Porto, University of Porto, Rua das Taipas, n° 135, 4050-600 Porto, Portugal