Assessment and Challenges in the Prediction of Gender-Based Violence Risk: Analysis of Current Tools

• In Event: Gendered Risk

Abstract

An accurate risk assessment is crucial for preventing recidivism in gender-based violence (GBV) and ensuring effective victim protection. In Spain, the VioGén system has been the main tool used by law enforcement agencies to assess the risk of recidivism in intimate partner violence (GBV). Recently, a new version of this protocol, VioGén 2, has been introduced, incorporating updated risk factors and methodological improvements. However, its implementation requires rigorous empirical validation to ensure its predictive reliability and effectiveness in real-world contexts.

This study aims to evaluate the validity and predictive performance of VioGén 2 by analyzing a large dataset of gender-based violence cases processed through the system. The research employs statistical modeling techniques to examine the protocol’s accuracy in classifying risk levels and guiding protection measures. Additionally, it explores the challenges associated with integrating algorithmic tools into law enforcement decision-making, particularly in balancing accuracy.

As part of a collaborative initiative between academia and the ministry, this study seeks to contribute to the continuous improvement of gender-based violence risk assessment frameworks in Spain.

Authors

• Sandra Pérez, Universidad Miguel Hernandez - Crímina

• Fernando Miró-Llinares, CRÍMINA Center, University Miguel Hernández of Elche