From Incident to Investigation: How Sexual Offence Characteristics Determine Investigation Outcomes in the London Transport Network

• In Event: Gendered victimisation

Abstract

Introduction: Sexual offences on public transport are an international daily occurrence. In London, these crimes continue to affect the safety and well-being of commuters, though underreporting hinders their true prevalence. It is, as such, important to understand how the offences that are successfully reported are investigated so that victims can gain justice. This study explores how offence characteristics determine whether investigation cases result in positive outcomes, such as charges or summons, or negative outcomes, such as case termination, due to victim distrust or unidentified suspects.
Methodology: This research uses a comprehensive dataset of 5,780 reported sexual offences between 2018 and 2023 on the London train and tram network to examine correlations between offence characteristics and British Transport Police investigation outcomes. A non-experimental approach is employed to analyse trends and identify spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns correlated to investigative success.
Key Findings: Among reported cases, multiple characteristics, such as offence type, location, time, and victim demographics, affect outcomes but do not consistently produce positive results. Over half of the cases had no suspect identified, and only 8.3% resulted in charges. Surprisingly, severe offences like sexual assault had lower success rates. Older victims (40-49) had better outcomes than younger victims (10-19) who are often reluctant to pursue prosecution. Offences reported in the early morning hours had higher positive outcomes than peak-hour offences. High-risk "hotspot" stations identified through Pareto’s Principle highlight the need for targeted interventions.
Conclusion: Our study in London reveals that while investigation action is taken, it remains inconsistent and heavily influenced by factors that should not determine the outcomes. Several characteristics influence whether police investigate a case, let alone charge or prosecute offenders. This research provides valuable policy insights for key stakeholders, including Transport for London and the British Transport Police, highlighting the need for improved investigative practices.

Author

• Anna Maria Prifti, University College London