Systems thinking for sustainable crime prevention.

• In Event: WG-PLACE 1: Research on crime, place and time

Abstract

The growth of the 'what works' agenda, coupled with a focus on quantitative evaluation designs, has resulted in an exponential growth of randomised control trials and meta-analyses. At the same time evidence-based policing and problem-solving approaches have focussed on being crime/problem specific. We do not dispute the value of this research, nor the need for a better evidence-base for situational crime prevention. Our ask is how sustainable these evidence-based interventions are. We contend the ‘what works’ agenda could actually be reframed as ‘what worked’, or ‘what worked in one location for 3 to 12 months’. At best we know ‘what worked in 5 to 10 locations, for 1 to 2 years’. Rarely do our evaluation approaches consider the sustainability of these interventions, for example did they continue to be effective for 5 to 10 years. Do our linear theory of change models, and does the short-term nature of funding, restrict efforts to achieve sustainable reductions?
To help address this, and as a complimentary approach, we propose the use of systems thinking, predominantly influenced by Donella Meadows, as a potential approach to develop more sustainable crime prevention efforts. This paper examines several systems thinking concepts. We consider systems definitions and system boundaries, the interconnected nature of a systems parts, the beneficiaries, identifying long term outcomes, multiple interdependent scales, hieratical boundaries, leverage points, the need for shared vision, and leverage points, We also explore potential barriers to sustainable change including shifting the burden, accidental adversaries, system gaming, limits to growth and eroding goals, tragedy of the commons, and policy resistant systems.

We propose a framework for rethinking our conventional approaches to crime prevention. By promoting a broader debate on integrated strategies, we offer an introduction to systems thinking for those committed to enhancing urban safety and sustainability.

Authors

• Andy Newton, Nottingham Trent University

• Vania Ceccato, KTH Royal Institute of Technology