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Is crime rising in Portugal? A three-decade analysis of crime and violence

Thu, September 4, 5:30 to 6:45pm, Communications Building (CN), CN 2103

Abstract

Background. Portugal is widely regarded as one of the safest countries in the world, with low crime rates. In 2019, the homicide rate stood at 0.9 per 100,000 inhabitants (WHO, 2023), lower than in the UK (1.3) and the USA (5.8). However, recent government reports suggest an increase in serious violent offenses and delinquent behaviors, particularly among youth. Additionally, public perception increasingly links Portugal with rising crime, especially violent crime, a fear that may be amplified by media portrayals. This growing concern risks fueling social tensions and shaping public policy, despite the lack of comprehensive scientific analysis of long-term crime trends in Portugal. This study aims to investigate crime trends over the past three decades, addressing three key research questions: (1) Is overall crime increasing in Portugal? (2) Is violent crime increasing? (3) Are crime and violent crime rates rising among adolescents and young adults? Method. To answer these questions, this study analyzes official crime data from the General Directorate of Justice Policy (DGPJ), spanning 1994 to the present. The dataset includes crimes registered by police authorities, criminal cases under trial, and convictions. By examining long-term trends, this study provides a comprehensive view of crime dynamics in Portugal. Results and Conclusions. Findings will reveal trends in overall crime, violent crime, and offenses committed by youth. While statistical data may not support the perception of a widespread crime surge, public fear of crime is increasing. This gap between perception and reality has significant policy implications, influencing law enforcement strategies and public discourse. The study underscores the need for evidence-based crime prevention measures and balanced crime reporting to ensure informed policymaking and public awareness.

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