Shifting crime, shifting policy: Analyzing the evolution of Portugal’s Criminal Policy

• In Event: Crime, Science and Politics WG Panel 6: Policy Shifts and Institutional Challenges Across Europe

Abstract

This study analyzes crime trends in Portugal in relation to the shifting nature of the country’s criminal policy. Since the enactment of Law 17/2006, Portugal has adopted a biennial reassessment criminal policy model, where priorities are adapted to shifting crime patterns and social realities. Despite the commendable purpose of seeking a dynamic and responsive approach to crime, little (if anything) is known about its impact on crime. This research aims to address this gap through an analysis of official crime data, including police, prosecution, and conviction statistics, from 2000 to 2023. Specifically, it seeks to understand whether policy changes relate to crime rates and judicial outcomes by comparing crime trends with criminal policy changes. To test the main hypothesis — that if a crime is listed as a prevention priority, its rate will decrease in subsequent years — Interrupted Time Series Analysis is applied. This method assesses both immediate changes in crime levels and long-term trends in crime rates following the enactment of each Criminal Policy Law. Preliminary analysis suggests that while some crimes, such as burglary and robbery, have decreased following policy prioritization, others, such as fraud, corruption, and sexual offenses, have remained stable or even increased. Conviction rates also show variations across offenses, suggesting that policy priorities do not always translate into changes in judicial outcomes. Moreover, the high volume of criminal cases handled by prosecutors raises questions about whether policy adjustments have contributed to a more efficient crime control strategy. By studying these dynamics, this research reflects on whether Portugal’s model of biennial reassessment promotes a truly adaptive and proactive criminal policy or merely reacts to past trends without achieving sustained crime reduction. Findings will contribute to discussions on the relationship between criminal policy adjustments and crime dynamics, offering insights for future policymaking.

Authors

• Mélanie M. Tiago, University Lusófona, Lisbon, Portugal

• André Inácio, University Lusófona, Lisbon, Portugal