Beyond Regional Identity: Imprisonment Trends and System Divergence in the Balkans (2005-2023)

• In Event: Balkan Criminology Penology Panel - Special Panel Celebrating 25 Years of ESC

Abstract

This study examines imprisonment trends across 13 Balkan countries from 2005 to 2023, revealing striking disparities in penal practices. Drawing on Council of Europe statistics, we find prison population rates ranging from 49.5 per 100,000 inhabitants in Bosnia and Herzegovina's Republika Srpska to 408.4 in Türkiye. A critical divergence occurred in 2014, when Balkan imprisonment rates continued rising while European rates declined, creating a “scissors effect” in regional trends.
We develop a typology classifying countries into low, medium, medium-high, and high imprisonment systems, identifying two distinct approaches: entry-driven systems processing many individuals briefly versus duration-driven systems incarcerating fewer people longer. This heterogeneity challenges assumptions about regional convergence in penal policy.
Our analysis of probation development reveals mixed outcomes, with several countries experiencing "net-widening" where community sanctions supplement rather than replace imprisonment. While EU membership generally correlates with lower imprisonment rates and stronger probation systems, national political factors can override supranational influences, as Hungary's case demonstrates.
We also identify an “infrastructure-staff paradox”—prison infrastructure expanded by 187% while custodial staff grew only 2.8%—potentially undermining rehabilitation efforts across the region. These findings suggest that contemporary Balkan penal practices reflect institutional choices shaped by political, legal, and demographic factors rather than shared regional heritage, offering valuable insights into the complex determinants of penal policy development.

Authors

• Marcelo F. Aebi, University of Lausanne

• Edoardo Cocco, University of Lausanne

• Mélanie M. Tiago, University Lusófona, Lisbon, Portugal