The Nexus of State-Sponsored and Transnational Organized Crime

• In Event: Unpacking High-Risk Criminal Networks: Bridging Gaps in Identification, Assessment, and Prevention

Abstract

Since 2022 EU countries have increasingly witnessed the exploitation of transnational criminal networks by belligerent state actors to achieve strategic objectives, including covert operations, sanctions evasion, and political and economic manipulation. This paper examines the intersections between state-sponsored crime and transnational organized crime, particularly within the context of contemporary hybrid warfare and the war in Ukraine. It explores how these dynamics contribute to conceptual and definitional ambiguities, questioning whether existing frameworks remain adequate for addressing the strategic use of illicit networks by state actors.
Furthermore, the paper argues that refining analytical frameworks to better conceptualize and investigate the evolving nature of state-sponsored criminality and its convergence with organized crime could enhance current threat and harm assessment methodologies employed by law enforcement and intelligence agencies. The paper also argues that criminal networks exploited as instruments of hostile statecraft should be classified as high-risk criminal networks.

Authors

• Madlen Nikolova, Senior Analyst, Center for the Study of Democracy, Bulgaria

• Atanas Rusev, Center for the Study of Democracy

• Roberta Koleva, Analyst, Center for the Study of Democracy, Bulgaria