Electoral Volatility and Fragmentation: Effects of Vote Advice, Issue Voting, and News on the Vote

• In Event: Influencing the Vote

Abstract

Vote Advice Applications (VAAs) such as the EUprofiler in the European elections are the most often used political websites during election campaigns, especially in multiparty systems. This article investigates whether the use of VAAs has an impact on the vote for different types of VAA-users that were identified in previous research: checkers, doubters and seekers. The study is based on two 3 wave panel surveys for the Dutch national election campaigns of 2010 and 2012, each with a pre-campaign wave to measure prior vote intention, a pre-election wave to measure VAA-use and advice obtained from VAAs, and a post-election wave to measure the actual vote. The research results show a huge impact of VAAs, who thereby contribute to electoral volatility and fragmentation, even when controlled for the prior vote, prior issue preferences, and horse race news. “Seekers” use VAAs most often, but the “doubters” are influenced most heavily by VAA-advice.

Authors

• Jan Kleinnijenhuis, VU U - Amsterdam

• Jasper van de Pol, U of Amsterdam

• Anita M. J. van Hoof, VU University Amsterdam

• Andre Krouwel, VU U - Amsterdam