Revisiting the Spiral of Silence: How Majority and Minority Groups Differ in Voicing Their Opinions in the Prodemocracy Movement in Hong Kong

• In Event: Intergroup Communication Research in Progress

Abstract

Recent pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, also known as the Umbrella Movement, have attracted global attention. While the opinion climate in Hong Kong seems to support the movement in general, there has also been discussion on how protests may negatively impact a harmonious society as well as local economy.

According to the spiral of silence hypothesis (Noelle-Neumann, 1974), one’s perception of the public opinion motivates his/her willingness to express personal views. People would estimate the opinion climate before they decide to speak up in public. Those who perceive themselves with minority positions on a divisive issue may not be willing to voice their opinions due to fear of isolation. While there is no shortage of empirical evidences (e.g., Kerr, et al., 1987; Lasorsa, 1991; Neuwirth, Frederick, & Mayo, 2007; Taylor, 1982; Willnat, 1996), critics also point to several deficiencies of the theory. For instance, the theory is considered missing a specified role for communities, organizations, and reference groups in mediating the effects of a larger society.

In Hong Kong, social conflicts between local Hong Kong residents and mainland Chinese migrants have intensified in recent years. According to a recent poll, even though both groups are ethnic Chinese, a majority of Hong Kong people (67.3%) would rather identify themselves as Hong Kongers; whereas less than a third (31.1%) of the Hong Kong people reported themselves as Chinese, more than 15 years after Hong Kong returned from the British to the Chinese rule (HKU POP, 2014). Smith (1991) defined majority status primarily in terms of a group’s superior, numerical representation within a given society. In pluralistic societies, members of majority or minority ethnic groups have salient conflicts in identification with each other (Smith, 1991). In the case of Hong Kong, it appears that Hong Kongers tend to be more vocal on such divisive issue as the pro-democracy movement than would mainland immigrants.

Hence, we argue that group status will mediate the spiral of silence effect. In other words, individuals who belong to the majority group but with minority opinions are still likely to speak up; while individuals who belong to the minority group but with majority opinions are still less likely to speak up, as isolation from the primary group would seem to be more critical for individuals than isolation from the society as a whole (Moy, Domke, & Stamm, 2001). Hence the pressure to conform to the reference group would be greater. We thus predict that group status will mediate individuals’ willingness to speak through perceived group norms (H1).

Furthermore, studies have found that perceived future congruency would significantly impact respondents’ willingness to express opinions on controversial topics (Scheufele, Shanahan & Lee, 2001). Empirical evidences also suggest that people with more firmly held beliefs are less susceptible to perceptions of the opinion climate, and thus are more likely to express their views (Lasorsa, 1991). Hence, we predict that group status will mediate individuals’ willingness to speak through future opinion congruency (H2).

Lastly, when people express their views, majority and minority group members may be concerned about the consequence of such speech to different degrees, affecting their outspokenness. Hence, we predict that group status will mediate individuals’ willingness to speak through the awareness of consequences (H3).

Data are being collected through an online survey. We expect to see salient differences in individuals’ opinion expression between majority and minority groups through different perceived group norms, future opinion congruency, and the awareness of consequences. The findings serve to extend and revise the spiral of silence theory, and advance our knowledge in public opinion research.

Authors

• Wan-Ying Lin, City U - Hong Kong

• Bolin CAO, City University of Hong Kong