How Anxiety and Enthusiasm Help Fuel the Bandwagon Effect

• In Event: Influencing the Vote

Abstract

This study investigates the role of emotions in the causal mechanism behind the (bandwagon) effect of opinion polls on vote switching. The study makes two contributions. First, it investigates the bandwagon effect in a real world election more precisely than previous studies, by establishing a stronger link between individual poll exposure and changes in vote intention, combining a media content analysis (N = 2344) with a two wave panel survey (N = 1064) of the 2013 German Bundestag election campaign. Second, it specifies the role played by emotions felt towards parties in the mechanism behind the bandwagon effect. Anxiety and enthusiasm are shown to co-mediate the relation between exposure to poll reports and vote switching. The study shows that polls are more than neutral interim campaign statistics as they influence election outcomes, and do so partly because of the emotions they evoke.

Authors

• Sjoerd Stolwijk, U of Amsterdam

• Andreas Schuck, U of Amsterdam

• Claes H. De Vreese, U of Amsterdam